Tuesday, June 19, 2012

The Greek bailout is back on. Hopes rise for future of the euro as pro-rescue parties say they WILL work together

• Pro-bailout centre-right New Democracy party wins 29.6% of the vote
• Has three days to form coalition government with other pro-bailout parties
• World markets initially rise on the positive outcome of the election
• But stocks have since tempered by increasing fears over Spain and Italy
• FTSE-100 down 0.05% down; CAC 40 down 0.67%; DAX up 0.13%

Greece's pro-bailout political parties today gave the 17-nation eurozone hope that the single currency will be saved - by revealing they will work together.

The head of Greece's centre-right New Democracy party began talks to form a government with other pro-bailout parties after yesterday's narrow election victory over the left.

Party leader Antonis Samaras was due to meet Evangelos Venizelos, the head of the Socialist PASOK party, at 3pm after he received a mandate to form a government from Greek President Karolos Papoulias.



Days of chaos: Greece is facing a race against time to form a coalition government, but there was a glimmer of good news as it looks like the ultra-right party Golden Dawn will not be part of any ruling group



Victorious: Leader of conservative New Democracy party Antonis Samaras arrives with his wife Georgia to make statement on the election results in Athens after claiming victory in Sunday's national election

The once-mighty PASOK, now reduced to third place after the dramatic rise of the leftist anti-bailout party SYRIZA, said it would support Samaras but had not yet decided whether to join the government or just offer parliamentary backing.

It means the nation can proceed with its austerity programme and be eligible for bailout money.

Samaras said Greece would fully meet its commitments but added: 'We will simultaneously have to make some necessary amendments to the bailout agreement, in order to relieve the people of crippling unemployment and huge hardships.'
More...

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In deep recession, crushed under its huge public debt and forced to slash public spending and hike taxes repeatedly, Greece is struggling to restore its near-bankrupt economy, and a new government could face new protests after taking office.

'The crisis has been postponed, not necessarily averted,' said Theodore Couloumbis, political analyst and vice-president of Athens-based think-tank ELIAMEP.

'For this government to last it has to show results. You can't continue with 50 per cent youth unemployment and a fifth straight year of recession,' he said.

SYRIZA, which had promised to tear up the bailout deal signed in March with the European Union and International Monetary Fund, scored strongly in the election.
Party leader Alexis Tsipras promised to continue its opposition to the painful austerity measures demanded of Greece.

'I don't think anything good will come out of these elections,' said Dinos Arabatzis, a 56 year-old taxi driver who voted for New Democracy.

'DON'T PRECIPITATE A GREEK EXIT FROM EURO', GERMANY WARNED
Lord Mandelson urged Germany not to precipitate a Greek exit from the euro, saying: ‘I would say be careful what you wish for.

‘Not only do you have the risk of contagion of market panic spreading across the more vulnerable members of the eurozone and this sort of growing sense within the markets that the euro has ceased to be a permanent currency.’

In a speech at the G20 summit of world leaders in Mexico today, David Cameron will repeat his warnings that eurozone countries must make sacrifices if they want their currency to survive.

‘The reality is that there are a set of things that eurozone countries need to do, and it’s up to eurozone countries whether they are prepared to make the sacrifices these entail,’ the Prime Minister will say.

‘The challenge is one of political will as much as economics. Of course these things are difficult to do. But just because these things are difficult does not mean we should not say them.

‘If the eurozone is to stay together, then it has to make at least some of these difficult decisions.

‘The alternatives to action that creates a more coherent eurozone are either a perpetual stagnation from a eurozone crisis that is never resolved, or a break-up caused by a failure to address underlying economic fundamentals that would have financial consequences that would badly damage the world economy, including Britain.’

Mr Cameron will add that the ‘fight for the future of the world economy won’t be won by a few governments in isolation’.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor George Osborne have long argued that a single currency can work only if the eurozone creates an effective single economic government.

Britain would stand outside any such arrangement, and the Prime Minister refused to sign a treaty taking more tentative steps toward a fiscal union last year.

'Whoever is in power now will get burned. Samaras will get burned, and Tsipras will come out much stronger if we go to elections again - that's what worries me,' he said.

With nearly 100 per cent of ballots counted in the election, a re-run of a poll on May 6 that left no party able to form a government, New Democracy had won 29.7 per cent of the vote, ahead of SYRIZA on 27 per cent, and PASOK on 12.3 per cent.

A 50-seat bonus automatically given to the party that comes first would give a theoretical New Democracy-PASOK alliance 162 seats in the 300-seat parliament, enough for a majority broadly committed to the €130billion bailout.

'The result showed people want the euro, but society remains divided. SYRIZA will be a militant opposition, possibly complicating the new government's efforts,' a senior New Democracy official said.

'The new government must deliver a positive development soon - an easing of the bailout terms or a positive sign in the economy - or people will lose trust in a week.'

In the markets, trust had an even shorter shelf life. Though the FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 1.1 per cent at the open, the index had shed all those gains before two hours were up.

It seems the underlying problems in the euro zone brought investors back to earth. The euro's rise also evaporated.

More worryingly, Italian and Spanish borrowing costs rose strongly with yields on Spain's 10-year bonds at dangerously high levels of over 7 per cent with equivalent Italian debt over 6 per cent.

The FTSE-100 is 0.05 per cent down at 5,475.88; France's CAC 40 is 0.67 per cent down at 3,066.93; while Germany's DAX is 0.13 up at 6,237.66.

PASOK officials said today that the meeting would decide how they would support Samaras - whether by participating fully in government, or by voting with the coalition in parliament.

The smaller, anti-bailout Democratic Left party was also due to decide today whether it would back the conservatives.

The new government may get some help from eurozone peers, relieved that SYRIZA had not won and set Greece on course for a euro exit with incalculable consequences for the rest of the 17-member bloc.

However, they have offered no prospect of any major overhaul of the bailout agreement, which requires Greece to find €11.7billion in spending cuts in June to qualify for the next loan instalment.

Greece has enough funds only last for a few weeks without more aid but European partners have become deeply suspicious of the commitment of Greek politicians to implementing unpopular austerity measures.

Show of support: Golden Dawn supporters shout slogans and celebrate the results of the elections outside their headquarters office in Thessaloniki last night

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said the substance of the bailout agreement was 'not negotiable', but he said creditors might be willing to offer some flexibility on timing for some of the targets, given the time lost in campaigning.

'We're ready to talk about the timeframe as we can't ignore the lost weeks, and we don't want people to suffer because of that,' he told German radio today.

However, even if it were granted some leeway, a coalition that won only 40 per cent of the vote would struggle to push through reforms in the face of deep public resentment of repeated rounds of tax hikes and pay and pension cuts.

Despite his loss Tsipras, 37, appeared buoyed by the election and rejected calls to join an all-party unity government, saying his party was now the main opposition force and promising to fight the bailout package.

His attitude has raised fears of a return to the anti-austerity protests that have left parts of Athens scarred by angry graffiti and patrolled by squads of police in riot gear.

'Obviously I voted for SYRIZA so it could win, but the left is becoming stronger by the day and I'm happy about that,' said Panagiotis Panagiotou, 55, a butcher in central Athens whose business has been hit by the crisis.

'SYRIZA will be a very powerful opposition party and when we have elections again - which we will - it will be even stronger, if not first.'

Underlining the signs of potential instability, the ultra-nationalist Golden Dawn party took 18 seats, repeating its success of May 6 and confirming its status as a force in Greek politics, carried by an angry mood of public protest.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THERE'S PANIC ON WORLD MARKETS?
If the election results spark panic on financial markets today, central banks around the world are ready to launch a massive intervention.

Germany will come under intense pressure from other world leaders at the G20 to throw a lifeline to moderates in Greece, perhaps by giving Athens longer to pay off its huge debts.

Angela Merkel is also being pressed to agree a lasting deal to shore up the eurozone, which would effectively mean Berlin underwriting the debt of struggling economies.

However the strong showing by Syriza is a major blow to the German chancellor and other EU leaders who had urged Greek voters to deliver a decisive show of support for the bailout deal.

Any new coalition is likely to prove too fragile to survive for long, given the intense pressure Greece’s economy is under.

Party leader Alexis Tsipras has vowed to rip up Greece’s bailout deal and repeal the austerity measures, which have included deep spending cuts on everything from health care to education and infrastructure, as well as tax hikes and reductions of salaries and pensions.

His pledges, which include cancelling planned privatisations, nationalising banks and rolling back cuts to minimum wages and pensions, have horrified European leaders.

Germany has warned that payments to Greece will be frozen if it abandons the terms of the bailout deal – a move that would see Greece run out money by July 20.

Leaders of Italy and Spain, two countries at the centre of contagion fears in the eurozone debt crisis, today welcomed the Greek election result as good news for Europe.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said the poll outcome augured well for the future of the European Union and eurozone countries but added that Athens must move quickly to form a new government.

'This allows us to have a more serene vision for the future of the European Union and for the eurozone,' he told reporters in Mexico upon arriving for a G-20 summit.

Monti, whose comments were aired on Italian television, said he was very pleased with the the victory of the New Democracy party.

'We hope that a strong government can be formed which confirms the commitments made with the EU,' he said.

Monti said Greeks had understood the importance of the EU, even if under difficult circumstances.

Speaking on his arrival at Los Cabos for the G-20 talks, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy greeted the election outcome as 'good news for Greece, very good news for the European Union, for the euro and also for Spain'.

'I am totally convinced that this strengthens the euro. The euro project is irreversible and we must continue to make progress on it.'

Both Spain and Italy saw their borrowing costs rise to near unsustainable levels as investor jitters about a possible Greek exit from the eurozone intensified the currency bloc's debt crisis in the weeks leading up to the rerun Greek election.

Rajoy said he was in favour of European fiscal integration and a banking union. 'It's true that some things take time but it's also true that we need to take steps in the right direction,' he added.

Basking in the sun as Greece went to the polls yesterday, Dimitri Panaglos sipped a cold beer and gave a personal – and very cynical – insight into how his tiny country could ignite global financial meltdown and leave the cradle of civilisation in economic ruins.

Widely travelled, with family in London where he studied for a degree in fine art, the 40-year-old smiled grimly and told me: ‘We Greeks are all thieves.

People didn’t know it when we had the drachma. But you soon knew when we joined the euro. We borrowed and spent without ever planning to pay it back. That’s just the Greek way.’

Now selling hand-drawn cartoons to tourists, having lost his studio and home, he added: ‘We are Greeks, not Europeans. That’s why we have always had two prices in every cafe – one on the sign that’s for foreigners and local cheap rates for Greeks.

‘Europe has never understood Greece – it’s a country where you take from foreigners, not give.’

Many of his countrymen would fiercely dispute his words. What cannot be denied, however, is that the good life seems to be coming to an emphatic end for the Greeks.

With Europe demanding austerity measures in return for keeping the country afloat – more than 240billion euros has already been provided by Europe’s taxpayers – Greeks were last night effectively voting on whether to accept the deal or plunge into chaos and possible bloodshed.

The EU has said that the conditions of the latest 130billion-euro bailout deal must be accepted fully by a new government or funds will be cut off, driving the country into bankruptcy.

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, warned that Greece will not be allowed to dodge its austerity agreement and ‘lead everyone else through the arena by the nose ring’.

Show of strength: Members of the extreme right-wing Golden Dawn shout slogans and celebrate the results of the elections outside of their headquarter office in Thessaloniki

Many businesses are already pulling out of the country, with Carrefour, the French supermarket giant, the latest to announce it is quitting. This is against a background of fears that Greece is about to descend once more into the political dark ages almost four decades after the end of the country’s military dictatorship.

Germany’s biggest newspaperBild, , summed up the mood of taxpayers there in an open letter to the Greek people this weekend.

It said: ‘Your cash machines continue to give you euros only because we put them there, the Germans and the other nations that have the euro.

‘Yet you still call us “Nazis”. If the elections are won by parties that want to put an end to austerity and reform – breaching every agreement – we will stop paying. You will choose between painful logic and complete disaster. And we are very much afraid that you don’t get that yet.’

Already, in a chilling portent of what may lie ahead, some hospitals were yesterday running short of medicines.

As a harbinger of possible civil unrest, two grenades were thrown at a TV station. No one was hurt, it heightened fears that armed groups are preparing to capitalise on any disorder.

With predictions of violence if the country exits the euro, and with shortages of money to pay for petrol, medicines or power, thousands of Athenians left the capital over the weekend, fearing battles between groups fighting for control of the country.

The latest election results have threatened to spark turmoil across the Eurozone as Greece looks set to reach political stalemate while rival parties try to form a coalition government

Countless Greeks have moved their money abroad – fearing banks could run out of money in the event of a Left-wing triumph and prompting EU leaders to finally put an end to the seemingly limitless amounts of cash lavished on a country of under 11million people.

Meanwhile, in what’s been called Drachmageddon, central banks from London to Tokyo are readying new arsenals of money to defend banks and national currencies against any post-election turmoil on the financial markets.

All this has started to fracture Greek society. Crime is soaring, while rubbish piles up in the streets and beggars proliferate.

Traditionally a rough port city, for all its ancient ruins and noble history, Athens is now the scene of frequent violence as even beggars fight viciously over scraps.

Yesterday I watched two groups of immigrants battling over possession of an abandoned shopping trolley loaded with junk. After punches were exchanged and one man was battered with a piece of wood, the winners of this pitiful contest ran off, whooping and shouting, pushing their trolley of scrap metal.

Ominously, such a febrile mood is playing into the hands of the resurgent, black-shirted fascists and neo-Nazis who now patrol the streets and have launched attacks in immigrant areas. They are often seen riding around on powerful motorcycles and armed with clubs and knives.

Outside the headquarters of the far-right Golden Dawn party I watched yesterday as muscular men in black T-shirts waved and cheered as police on motorbikes roared past, giving thumbs-up signs to the neo-Nazis protesters. Elements in the police are alleged to have strong links with the far-Right.

Nico, one stocky member of the group, told me that he and his cronies have a ‘zero tolerance’ policy towards immigrants suspected of crimes and ‘stealing’ jobs from local people.

He warned: ‘I can’t say what we will do – but there will be actions taking place through the night.’
So far, similar ‘actions’ have resulted in brutal attacks on immigrants, estimated to make up almost two million of Greece’s population.

In one incident, an African man was run through with a sword in front of stunned passengers on the capital’s gleaming 20billion-euro metro (paid for, of course, entirely out of EU cash).

With Golden Dawn vigilantes touring immigrant areas on motorbikes, and more attacks feared, the issue of racial violence was highlighted after five Egyptians were savagely attacked in the capital, and a member of the foreign press was badly beaten for filming masked neo-Nazis chasing Africans through the streets.

Perhaps, even at this late hour, Greece can pull back from the brink.

But as the stars came out over the Acropolis last night, it was difficult not to conclude that whatever the election outcome, darkness beckons for this once proud country.

WHY I AM NOT A DISPENSATIONALIST; John Nelson Darby is recognized as the father of dispensationalism later made popular in the United States by Cyrus Scofield's Scofield Reference Bible. Charles Henry Mackintosh, 1820–1896, with his popular style spread Darby's teachings to humbler elements in society and may be regarded as the journalist of the Brethren Movement. CHM popularised Darby more than any other Brethren author. As there was no Christian teaching of a “rapture” before Darby began preaching about it in the 1830s, he is sometimes credited with originating the "secret rapture" theory wherein Christ will suddenly remove His bride, the Church, from this world before the judgments of the tribulation. Dispensationalist beliefs about the fate of the Jews and the re-establishment of the Kingdom of Israel put dispensationalists at the forefront of Christian Zionism, because "God is able to graft them in again," and they believe that in His grace he will do so according to their understanding of Old Testament prophecy. They believe that, while the methodologies of God may change, His purposes to bless Israel will never be forgotten, just as He has shown unmerited favour to the Church, He will do so to a remnant of Israel to fulfill all the promises made to the genetic seed of Abraham. I am not a dispensationalist; it is unbiblical.